The countdown clock has hit zero, the confetti has fallen, and folks are basking in the shine of a fresh start. Across social media, Ohioans are predicting what they think the new year will bring for them and their loved ones. But what does 2026 have in store for Ohio education? Here are three predictions.
The countdown clock has hit zero, the confetti has fallen, and folks are basking in the shine of a fresh start. Across social media, Ohioans are predicting what they think the new year will bring for them and their loved ones. But what does 2026 have in store for Ohio education? Here are three predictions.
1. Education policy will be a major talking point in the race for governor.
In the fall, Ohioans will head to the polls to elect a new governor. As of this writing, they’ll likely be choosing between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. There are plenty of pressing concerns—like the economy and affordability—that will be debated. But given that one of the candidates (Ramaswamy) has been fairly outspoken about his ideas for schools, it’s likely that education will be a talking point for both campaigns. Two issues, in particular, will take center stage.
First, school funding. If it seems like Ohio lawmakers have been locked in a battle over this issue for years, that’s because they have been. In 2021, they established a new framework that determined the “base cost” of educating an average student and required an additional $2 billion per year to meet its prescriptions. Since then, there have been incessant debates over updating formula inputs, eliminating guarantees, and effectively allocating dollars for low-income students. The state budget that was passed this summer was a mixed bag that didn’t make much progress on solving these issues. With another budget looming in 2027, Ohio’s next governor will need a plan for funding schools, and you can be sure the media will be asking for details.
Second, school choice. This is a bit of a no-brainer, given that Republicans and Democrats disagree sharply on this issue. But the polarization is particularly deep in Ohio, where left-leaning groups regularly blame charters and vouchers for “draining” funds from traditional district schools (untrue), negatively impacting academic outcomes in those schools (also untrue), only helping the rich (again, untrue), and causing pretty much every other problem under the sun. A lawsuit against the state’s largest private school choice program, EdChoice, is currently working its way through the courts. Add in persistent problems like transportation and charter accountability, and school choice is sure to be a featured issue on the campaign trail.
2. State lawmakers won’t get much done in terms of new policy.
For better or worse, Ohio does the bulk of its education policymaking through the biennial state budget. Off-cycle years are typically used to take stock of wins and losses and gameplan for the next budget. 2026 is poised to follow the same pattern. And even if education advocates wanted to break tradition and get some things done, there are two sizable roadblocks in the way. The first is the governor’s race and various Statehouse elections, which will suck up political oxygen and leave little room for policymaking. The second is a lack of shared vision between the House and Senate, despite both enjoying Republican supermajorities. During the 2025 budget process, the two chambers disagreed on most education issues, including school funding, school choice, and career-technical education. Those disagreements haven’t been resolved in the last few months. That makes passing legislation in the new year highly unlikely—which is a real shame, as both chambers have been working on some promising bills.
3. Local issues will continue to grab headlines.
District-level controversies garnered a lot of media attention in 2025. Two of the state’s largest school systems—Cleveland and Columbus—have been dominating the news lately due to budget cuts and school consolidation efforts. But they’re not the only ones. Districts all over the state made headlines this year for suing the federal government, struggling with transportation, grappling with chronic absenteeism, and lackluster report card ratings. Unfortunately for kids and families, most of these issues haven’t been resolved—and that means they’ll continue making headlines in 2026.
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And there you have it. 2026 is poised to be a dramatic year, with a race for governor and a lot of local controversies on the horizon. Here’s hoping that, through it all, adults remember to keep the focus on kids.
From college football to movies, everyone loves a good top-ten ranking. In an effort to give the people what they want, here are the ten most notable education stories from the past year in Ohio.
10. County judge slams private school choice. In 2022, a group of school districts filed a lawsuit seeking to wipe out Ohio’s private school scholarship program known as EdChoice. Earlier this summer, Franklin County judge Jaiza Page—an elected Democrat and private school alumna—ignored legal precedent and parental rights in siding with the anti-school-choice plaintiffs. Citing certain appeal, the judge stayed her decision, which meant that 140,000 students, many low-income and minority, did not have their scholarships immediately stripped. Next stop in the lawsuit: the 10th district court of appeals.
9. Graduation rates balloon, pumped up by low standards. This year, the state’s four-year graduation rate reached 88.3 percent, the highest point over the past decade. In three in five districts, rates topped 95 percent. Even underperforming districts such as Akron, Columbus, and Youngstown posted rates above 80 percent. But the dirty little secret behind these sky-high numbers is that thousands of students are graduating through a low-level career-tech alternative that allows them to bypass basic math and reading requirements. That raises the question: How will these barely literate young people fare in the real world?
8. The push for improved charter school funding loses steam. For many years, Ohio severely underfunded its public charter schools. Under Governor DeWine, the funding situation for charters has brightened, thanks largely to a hefty supplement for high performers. This year’s state budget kicked off with the promise of further improvements, as the governor proposed a sizeable increase in charter facility allotments. The gains, unfortunately, did not materialize in the final budget, and the funding gaps faced by charters today remain about the same as in the prior biennium.
7. Ohio moves toward more accurate counts of low-income students. Due to highly inflated “economically disadvantaged” rates resulting from federal policy shifts, Ohio has increasingly misdirected state aid intended to support low-income students. This year, lawmakers took a first step toward fixing the problem. Starting this fall, allotments will be based partly on more accurate counts of low-income pupils who are identified via direct certification. While a good start, lawmakers left some work unfinished. They still need to fully incorporate direct certification rates into the funding formula. They also need to boost the base per-low-income-pupil amount to ensure high-poverty schools are not negatively impacted by this needed shift.
6. Good riddance to the “emergency” levy. With rising home values and citizens sounding alarms about tax bills, state lawmakers took a serious look at property tax policy this year. Ohio’s property tax system is notoriously complex, and one of the most opaque measures has been the “emergency levy.” If a natural disaster knocked down a school building, using that type of language to describe a tax request to citizens would be understandable. But that’s not how the policy was being used. School districts were taking advantage of the charged-up language to get levy requests past voters, not to address legitimate catastrophes. Thankfully, lawmakers repealed the emergency levy through the budget process. Moving forward, districts will be required to put more conventional, neutrally framed tax requests on ballots.
5. Lawmakers put the brakes on Cupp-Patterson. Enacted in 2021 with much fanfare, the Cupp-Patterson model is Ohio’s latest school funding formula. During sunnier times, such as the past couple budget cycles, lawmakers were willing to cover its hefty costs. But going into a leaner budget, it was less clear that lawmakers would continue their embrace. House Speaker Matt Huffman set the tone early by dubbing the formula “unsustainable.” The governor’s proposal was also cool toward the model, as it did not call for an update of the formula inputs, a move which helps the model function but at an enormous cost to the state. In the end, lawmakers retained the general framework but constrained its costs by declining an input update.
4. Study finds EdChoice increased college attendance and completion. This year, the Urban Institute published findings that Ohio’s private school scholarship students had college enrollment rates 16 percentage points above their public school peers, while their degree completion rates were 8 points higher. The study also found that EdChoice lifted public school students’ college outcomes through competitive effects. Unfortunately, these positive results haven’t stopped the attacks on EdChoice, whose critics seem more focused on money and adult interests than what’s good for Ohio students.
3. Ohio wins a big federal charter school grant. In September, state officials announced that Ohio will receive a $55.5 million competitive grant to support the growth of public charter schools. The funds will be spent over the next five years to expand and replicate quality charters, with a special focus on launching high schools, as well as expanding options in high-poverty communities and rural areas. In addition, Ohio also received $49.2 million to support charter schools’ facility needs. If used well, these funds should unlock exciting new opportunities for Ohio students.
2. Math makes its way onto the state’s policy agenda. Math proficiency has long been a struggle for too many Ohio students, and the pandemic made things even worse. To their credit, state policymakers began taking steps to address the crisis this year. Back in July, the Ohio Department of Education and Workforce unveiled its statewide plan to improve math performance. Then in December, the Ohio Senate unanimously passed math-focused legislation (SB19) that would require the department to identify high-quality math curricula, schools to help low-performing students, and prospective elementary teachers to pass a licensing test before teaching this subject.
1. More Ohio families choose non-district options. My top story of the year—not one covered widely in the mainstream media—is the steadily increasing number of families exercising choice. From 2023–24 to 2024–25, public charter and STEM school enrollments were up by about 2,500 students, good for a 2.2 percent increase. Private school enrollments rose by nearly 8,000 students (+4.6 percent). The number of homeschoolers also increased by about 8,000 students, a 15.0 percent increase (a larger percentage bump given fewer homeschoolers). These data indicate that more Ohio families are finding educational environments that work for their children. In a year with its share of depressing news, that’s reason for cheer.
Happy New Year, and here’s to a great 2026.
Befitting a busy year with so many education topics to cover—including a state budget, a voucher lawsuit, and a full court press to cut down on chronic student absenteeism—Ohio Gadfly readers found a diverse roster of blog posts to pay attention to in 2025.
Here are the top six most-read pieces of the year, in chronological order, neatly telling the story of 2025.
1. Five bold predictions for Ohio education policy in 2025, by Aaron Churchill
Ready to hit the ground running for 2025, readers flocked to our annual prognostication piece starting on New Years Day. Ohio’s K–12 education system would be the envy of the country if all of Aaron’s forward-looking, positive predictions for the year had come true—including those that would boost access to high-quality school choice and solve ongoing transportation woes. Alas, while some progress was made, stakeholders and policymakers have more work to do in future years to bring these to fruition.
2. The irrational hysteria over the billion-dollar price tag of Ohio’s private school scholarships, by Aaron Churchill
As a prelude to the budget (and legal) battles ahead, voucher critics across Ohio engaged in sky-is-falling rhetoric early in the year, denouncing not only the cost of Ohio’s private school scholarship programs but also spreading the false notion that wealthy families were disproportionately benefiting from them. Aaron’s well-read analysis concluded with the inescapable fact that “the vast majority of these funds support less advantaged families who rely on scholarships to enroll their child in a private school of their choice,” and that “scholarship spending remains small in comparison to overall public school funding.” Both findings resonated with readers. Unfortunately, his hope for “a calmer, more fact-driven discussion” around the issue as 2025 went on did not come true.
3. DeWine’s state budget overhauls Ohio’s absence intervention framework, by Jessica Poiner
Among the many education provisions included in the state budget proposal released by Governor DeWine in early February was a revamp of the way Ohio schools address student absenteeism. Specifically, DeWine wanted to move from a “prescriptive, legalistic, and reactive response to students missing school” toward locally-driven interventions that would anticipate and address specific reasons for student absences. The problem is serious, and readers were eager to see all the possible solutions laid out. Most of them ultimately became law, too, hopefully igniting positive change that will lead to significant declines in chronic absenteeism.
4. Governor DeWine is right: Ohio must stop funding “empty desks”, by Aaron Churchill
The governor’s budget also proposed ending fiscal “guarantees,” a longstanding feature of education funding in Ohio that provides excess money to protect districts from reductions that would otherwise be prescribed under the state’s funding formula—especially for districts who are shedding enrollment. At a press conference, DeWine likened that process to paying for “phantom students” who did not really exist, and Ohio Gadfly readers eagerly read Aaron’s analysis supporting this contention. The final budget lamentably walked back the governor’s ambitious proposal in favor of minor adjustments.
5. Let’s stop crying “unconstitutional” about Ohio school funding, by Chad L. Aldis
In the midst of the budget debate in April, an old rallying cry arose in the media: Ohio’s school funding system is “unconstitutional.” As Chad Aldis explained in one of our most-read blogs of the year, this is an outdated view. Ohio has enacted four major funding overhauls in the years since the court decisions cited. “The current model is fundamentally different than the one the Ohio Supreme Court found lacking two decades ago,” he wrote. “As the Senate gets to work on its version of the budget, let’s stop pretending we’re still stuck in the DeRolph era. Ohio’s school funding system may not be flawless. But unconstitutional? That dog won’t hunt.”
6. Ohio’s state budget yields a mixed bag on education funding, by Aaron Churchill
Finally, readers flocked to our analysis of the final budget bill that went to DeWine’s desk in late June after months of debate in the General Assembly. While only “baby steps” were made toward sunsetting those pesky guarantees, an understanding of the true state of the funding system (and overall economic concerns) did serve to restrain increases overall, with charter school students and EdChoice and Cleveland Scholarship recipients seeing little or no boosts. Aaron’s analysis also examined several marquee non-funding-related provisions, including a continuation of DeWine’s early literacy push, industry-recognized credentialing, and career-connected learning.
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As has long been the case in Ohio, substantive education policy often comes about via the biennial state budget process. Stakeholders pay attention to every nuance, debate, and vote, and that was no different this year. We at Fordham are proud to be a go-to resource for analysis, commentary, and research that informs the discussion.
Thank you, as always, for turning to us for your news and information.
Two decades ago, the Thomas B. Fordham Institute’s Ohio Gadfly newsletter was born—on November 2, 2005 to be exact. Younger sibling of the nationally focused Education Gadfly Weekly, the upstart promised to give Ohio readers the biweekly buzz on “news, analysis, and insight into the education reform effort” in the Buckeye State. That first edition—written, edited, and produced in Fordham’s hometown of Dayton—promised to “play an important role in informing the dialogue and inspiring the debate around pressing issues facing K–12 education” across the state. The Ohio Gadfly has continued that mission uninterrupted ever since.
While we may have lost the old baby pictures over the years (no great loss—likely just a standard, text-heavy email template), we do still have all of Ohio Gadfly’s first words. You can read the full text of Volume 1, Number 1 here.
A couple of observations looking back over twenty years:
The first is how much hasn’t changed with the Gadfly in all that time. Our inaugural edition led off with an editorial piece based on brand new findings from a survey, commissioned by Fordham, of more than 1,000 randomly-selected Ohioans. We’re still partnering on similar types of surveys today to identify what parents and other stakeholders know and care about across a range of education issues.
What were the issues at the top of folks’ minds back in 2005? Spending education funds efficiently, stopping social promotion of underprepared students, providing merit pay for the best teachers, and establishing no-nonsense discipline policies to keep schools safe and class time productive. These topics are still important today. And even though many policy changes have been enacted in the intervening years, there is still more work to do—and Fordham Ohio is at the forefront.
The second observation, though, is that something important has changed…for the better. The Buckeye State’s charter school sector has come a very long way over the last twenty years. The first edition of Ohio Gadfly is full of news clips and comments reflecting the turbulent early days of charters, from mismanaged funds to academic dysfunction.
After years of prodding from Fordham and other quality-minded choice advocates, things began to change with the passage of House Bill 2 in 2015. Two years later, Fordham research showed that the sector was already on the road to redemption. By 2020, the number of charter authorizers had shrunk, dozens of low-performing schools had closed, and student achievement was on the upswing. Around that time, school choice champion Governor Mike DeWine began efforts to incentivize high-performing charters to expand and replicate through a new funding supplement.
Today, Ohio is far beyond those bad old days. School choice is healthy and growing, with more than 110,000 students attending a variety of charters across the state.
As for the Ohio Gadfly, it’s all grown up, too, relocated to the state capital but still bringing Ohioans all the buzz on important education policy issues. Our November 3, 2025 edition, for instance, included new research on Ohio’s graduation requirements, analysis of a promising model for teacher merit pay, and a review of research on postsecondary readiness tests, among other pieces.
We’ll keep writing and hope that you’ll keep reading!
Where are they now? Volume 1, Number 1 writers today.
Terry Ryan departed the Fordham Institute in 2013 to lead Bluum, a nonprofit organization helping Idaho become a national model for how to maximize learning outcomes for children and families. He remains CEO of Bluum today.
Checker Finn transitioned away from his duties as President of the Fordham Institute in 2014 but didn’t stray far. Today he is Distinguished Senior Fellow and President Emeritus of the organization, and remains one of our most prolific education gadflies.
Allison Porch became a freelance researcher and business consultant upon leaving Fordham in 2006, before earning her master of library science degree and joining the Carol Stream Public Library system in Illinois in 2015.
