Across the United States, a representative sample of thousands of fourth, eighth, and twelfth grade students has begun sitting for the National Assessment of Educational Progress. NAEP is administered independently of state-level standards but presents state- and national-level results. As such, it is one of the only sources to compare academic achievement across states with varied approaches to schooling, particularly for younger students who aren’t yet participating in college entrance exams like the SAT or ACT. If the federal government is serious about “returning education to the states,” then it’s critical to have a tool to see which state approaches work.
Elena Doty, Thomas Kane, Tyler Patterson, and Douglas Staiger set out to determine how changes in NAEP scores at the state level relate to future life outcomes for various cohorts. They explore NAEP data from long before the pandemic, looking primarily at state-level eighth-grade math scores from 1990 to 2019 and later adult outcomes from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. Students in these cohorts were born between 1977 and the early 2000s, with observations in adulthood through 2019. The researchers link individual adult outcomes to the birth state as a proxy to determine where they went to school. They control separately for adult location to prevent labor market differences between states from impacting their results, helping ensure that the results reflect educational differences rather than broader economic conditions. By pairing cohort-level academic data with individual adult outcomes, the research team can estimate how much NAEP improvements predict long-term outcomes.
According to their analysis, states with the largest gains in eighth-grade math scores also showed the strongest improvements in adult outcomes, particularly economic indicators. A 1 standard deviation rise in scores is associated with a 6–8 percent increase in future adult earnings. State-level cohorts with higher scores were also more likely to graduate from high school and enroll in college. As adults, they were more likely to be employed and work longer hours than their lower-scoring peers.
The positive results extended beyond employment and income. Higher-scoring cohorts had lower rates of teen motherhood, lower incarceration rates for young men, and lower violent crime arrests (a decline of 30 percent per standard deviation increase in eighth-grade math score).
Interestingly, the research team found no clear connection between test score gains and bachelor’s degree completion, home ownership, or marital status—markers often assumed to predict better adult circumstances like higher salaries and lower incarceration rates.
The economic and social improvements held even after controlling for demographics, parent education, health, labor market conditions, and regional economic trends. The relationship between eighth-grade math scores and adult outcomes isn’t simply a reflection of family background and does not appear to depend on traditional credentials often associated with economic mobility. The results indicate a relationship specific to academic achievement and adult outcomes that is independent of the general economic landscape within each state—in fact, the correlation between state test score gains and changes in median household income was slightly negative over the study’s time period (-0.25).
Nationally, NAEP gains in fourth and eighth grade often fade out in twelfth-grade NAEP scores. Twelfth-grade scores are not available at the state level, but eighth-grade gains appear to lead to better adult outcomes regardless of what happens to national scores later on. The findings align with other researchers’ theories that test score gains sometimes transfer to real-world benefits that are more durable than the scores suggest.
NAEP is unmatched in providing comparisons between states and in this analysis the differences among states are significant. North Carolina’s students improved nearly a full standard deviation from 1990 to 2019—gains associated with over 7 percent greater earnings. In contrast, Iowa’s student scores were essentially flat over three decades, with correspondingly smaller changes in adult outcomes.
If eighth-grade math gains predict better adult outcomes, post-pandemic NAEP declines are cause for serious concern. The national average decline in eighth-grade math scores from 2019 to 2022 (down 0.2 standard deviations) may lead to a 1.6 percent decrease in future income for those students. In Iowa, Maine, Montana, North Dakota, and Oregon, 2022 scores fell below 1990’s level. Learning recovery is happening at different rates in different states, and the national average continued to fall on the 2024 NAEP. It will be a few more years before post-pandemic NAEP data can be viewed against adult outcomes, but Doty et al.’s findings are some of the clearest evidence yet that learning loss has lasting consequences.
For decades, NAEP has been the standard for measuring where state efforts are working and where they fall short. This study’s authors did not set out to illustrate NAEP’s value—the study was underway before the current administration pushed for major changes at the Department of Education. Still, the results show that, as states take the lead on education, NAEP remains a powerful tool for understanding how education policy choices shape long-term outcomes for students.
SOURCE: Elena Doty, Thomas J. Kane, Tyler Patterson, and Douglas O. Staiger. “What do changes in state NAEP scores imply for birth cohorts’ later life outcomes?” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Volume 45, June 2025.
