With the midterms days away, all signs point toward Democrats carrying one, if not both, houses of Congress, an outcome that would be good for civic health and hygiene but could complicate education reform at the federal level. The stakes may be even greater in states, where the lion’s share of education policy is made and most education dollars are spent. Governors wield outsized influence, appointing key leaders, shaping policy agendas, and coaxing reluctant legislatures to act. Of the 36 governors’ races on tap, three will be particularly consequential for ed reform: Texas, Ohio, and Oregon. Each state has experienced extended periods of one-party control. The elections could send their education systems in sharply different directions.
Texas
Nowhere is the divide over education policy starker than in Texas, where Governor Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth four-year term and Democrats haven’t won a statewide office in more than 30 years. Abbott is locked in a surprisingly tight race with State Representative Gina Hinojosa, a former Austin ISD school board president. A skeptic of standardized testing, school choice, and state takeovers, Hinojosa has pledged to fire Texas’s long-serving and effective education commissioner, Mike Morath, on “day one.” Her proposals for what would replace the current approach are less developed, but Hinojosa’s stated priorities point toward a sharp break with Abbott and Morath: a retreat from the current testing and accountability regime, an end to the state’s nascent education savings account (ESA) program, and more deference to local districts. She would, however, face stiff headwinds from a Republican-controlled legislature.
During his decade at the helm, Morath has profoundly reshaped Texas education. The state’s leading-edge Teacher Incentive Allotment delivers Texas-sized paychecks for great teachers, with a statewide study finding substantial gains in teacher retention and student achievement. The Lone Star State’s social studies standards, Bluebonnet curriculum, and reading list are admirably explicit about the importance of knowledge-building and curricular coherence. And the state’s takeover of Houston ISD has produced striking results. The number of D- and F-rated campuses plummeted from 120 in 2023 to 13 in 2026, while the number of A-rated campuses skyrocketed from 36 to 92. Morath is now extending the state’s intervention strategy to other districts, making the future of ed reform a central stake in the Texas governor’s race.
Ohio
Ohio is another state where the GOP has been sitting in the catbird seat; the state hasn’t voted in a Democratic governor in 20 years, and Republicans have maintained veto-proof majorities in both legislative chambers for much of that time. Vivek Ramaswamy finds himself trailing former state health director Amy Acton as the campaign has taken an increasingly personal turn. Lost amid the mudslinging is a more interesting contrast between the Ramaswamy who built a national profile as a Trump-aligned firebrand and the Ramaswamy now pitching Ohio voters on a relatively conventional conservative education platform. Consider what he’s said on the stump:
I’ll lead Ohio to be the top state in the country where our kids get a world-class education in math, reading, writing, critical thinking, and physical education...where we give our kids the toolkit to think of themselves not as victims but as victors...
And in an essay for the Wall Street Journal, he advocated paying effective teachers more, citing, among other examples, the model that inspired Texas’s Teacher Incentive Allotment.
Acton’s vision runs in the opposite direction, emphasizing public school funding and reform of the state’s expansive voucher program. Endorsed by both state teachers unions, the physician wants across-the-board pay raises and to “fully fund” public schools, a far cry from Ramaswamy’s emphasis on performance-based compensation. The contrast is substantive, although school funding has been a contested topic in the Buckeye State for years. School choice may pose the more immediate test. Earlier this month, an Ohio appeals court unanimously ruled the state’s EdChoice voucher program unconstitutional, finding that it funds a competing private school system that lacks the obligations constitutionally imposed on public schools. The program remains in place pending appeal to the Ohio Supreme Court. Whatever the court ultimately decides (most observers expect the high court to uphold the program), school choice will remain a major policy test for the next governor.
Oregon
If Texas and Ohio are ruby red, Oregon is indigo blue. The last time a Republican was elected governor was in 1982. Yet Governor Tina Kotek is in a competitive reelection rematch with State Senator Christine Drazan, with education among the issues putting Kotek’s record under scrutiny. Adjusted for student demographics, Oregon is 47th in eighth grade reading, 49th in eighth grade math, and dead last in both fourth grade reading and math. Drazan’s plan calls for, among other sensible moves, reinstating graduation requirements that were abandoned following the pandemic—a debacle that made the Beaver State a cryingstock among national observers.
Oregon is the only state in the country in which the governor is also the chief state school officer. Kotek appoints every member of the state board of education along with the leader of the state education agency. Drazan has pledged to replace the agency’s director along with the entire board. That structure gives the governor substantial authority over education policy, but Oregon’s challenges run deep. Student achievement has deteriorated since 2013. State accountability is a paper tiger. Students can easily opt out of standardized tests. And chronic absenteeism is the second highest in the country. Oregon also ranks 47th in the nation in time spent in school, with some districts providing as few as 137 instructional days in an academic year. The prevailing culture is one of complacency and compliance. Should Drazan win, she may need to recruit reinforcements from outside the state to lead the education agency and reshape the state board. Oregon’s education establishment is deeply entrenched, and turning this listing ship around won’t be easy.
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These three races pose distinct tests for education reform. Texas could test whether reforms built over a decade can survive a change in leadership. In Ohio, the test is whether a new governor can effectively navigate competing demands over school funding and school choice. And Oregon, at the opposite political pole, could test whether a new administration can reverse course after a generation of one-party rule. A Democratic victory in Texas and Ohio, coupled with a Republican victory in Oregon, would amount to a seismic shift in the politics of education reform across three very different states.
