A recent CALDER study by Darrin DeChane, Takkako Nomi, and Michael Podgursky utilizes test data from Missouri’s state assessment, known as MAP, to assess how well these test scores predict college and career readiness.
The researchers draw on eighth grade MAP scores in math, science, and communication arts from Missouri’s longitudinal data system, as well as post-secondary outcome data from the National Student Clearinghouse, including graduating from high school, attending college, earning a degree, and earning a four-year degree. The data consist of approximately 264,000 students who started high school between fall 2009 and fall 2012 in 545 schools. The researchers monitored these students through high school and for five years following their expected graduation date.
Based on their eighth-grade scores, Missouri groups students into one of four performance levels: below basic, basic, proficient, or advanced. Using odds ratios, the researchers found a strong positive association between higher MAP performance scores and college attendance and degree completion across all subject areas. This held true for all racial (White, Black, and Hispanic) and gender (male and female) subgroups.
For example, a student who scored advanced on the eighth grade Math MAP exam is 1.4 times more likely than a below-basic student to graduate from high school, 3.9 times more likely to attend college, 13.5 times more likely to earn a post-secondary degree, and 29.7 times more likely to earn a four-year degree. These numbers are even larger for English scores. Ultimately, a student who reaches proficiency on any eighth grade MAP assessment is twice as likely to earn a degree and three times as likely to earn a four-year degree.
Additionally, analysts used a simulation to show that, if all students scoring below proficient increased to the proficient level, the total number of students earning a post-secondary degree would increase by 55 percent. This numbers are even higher for Black and Hispanic students: whopping 150 percent and 75 percent increases, respectively (with the difference largely due to the gap in achievement in original scores).
Although studies have examined the relationship between academic achievement and economic mobility, few papers have assessed the relationship between state-level assessments in the earlier grades (i.e. grades 3–8) and post-secondary educational attainment using a state longitudinal data system.
Because the findings indicate that MAP test results are a strong predictor of college and career readiness, and ESSA requires that all states must use a college and career readiness indicator, we might ask ourselves: How can other states, educators, and schools use these indicators (like state assessment data) to help prepare students for post-secondary success sooner?
First, ensuring that students reach proficiency on these tests remains important, as it not only demonstrates an understanding of content, but simultaneously boosts their chances of attending college, as well. Consequently, in order to help students achieve college and career readiness, high school teachers and administrators should not ignore test scores from earlier grades, nor should they assume that students will naturally catch up during their high school careers.
Second, students who do not reach proficient scores should receive additional support. For example, students (and their parents, as well) who fall below proficiency targets in middle or early high school should be sought out by guidance or career counselors to discuss how their current scores might impact their future college aspirations. That way, a student can begin working to make necessary changes sooner rather than later. Similarly, the school could use these data to recommend students for additional college-preparation services, such as tutoring, a peer mentorship program, assistance finding relevant jobs or internships, or help studying for the ACT or SAT.
Ultimately, the study indicates that the MAP test is a strong predictor of post-secondary outcomes. While other states might use different indicators for college and career readiness, state tests or other indicators should be utilized by teachers and school-level officials to better prepare students for success after high school.
SOURCE: Darrin DeChane, Takako Nomi, and Michael Podgursky, “College and Career Ready: How Well Does 8th Grade MAP Performance Predict Post-Secondary Educational Attainment?” CALDER (May 2024).
