The past few years have been a busy time in Ohio education, as state leaders have pushed the envelope on educational choice, promoted the science of reading, and gone back and forth on all sorts of accountability policies.
The past few years have been a busy time in Ohio education, as state leaders have pushed the envelope on educational choice, promoted the science of reading, and gone back and forth on all sorts of accountability policies. While progress has certainly been made—most notably in the realm of choice and charter schools—many of these areas remain unsettled. With the biennial state budget debates on tap, the coming year is sure to be another barnburner. It’s anyone’s guess what will happen, but here are my five—admittedly optimistic—predictions for 2025.
5. Lawmakers will get fed up with the busing fiasco and take action to ensure districts get their act together. In 2024, news broke over Columbus City Schools’ outrageous refusals to provide transportation to students attending public charter or private schools. In eleventh-hour decisions just before the school year, the district declared hundreds of resident students “impractical” to transport, leaving families scrambling to find ways to get their children to school. Recognizing the injustice, Attorney General Dave Yost filed a lawsuit to compel the district to provide transportation, a service that is generally required under state law (the case is still in court). This year, state lawmakers will intervene and make sure that parents and students aren’t left in a lurch by removing the “impracticality” loophole that some districts have exploited to avoid bussing students.
4. Lawmakers will stop shoveling “guarantee” money to districts losing enrollment. Reflecting demographic changes—fewer childbirths and outmigration—along with the rise of school choice and pandemic-influenced attendance patterns, enrollments at most school districts have been on the decline. Under a “fair” school funding formula, districts serving fewer kids should receive fewer dollars. But as discussed many times on this blog, Ohio has a longstanding (and politically motivated) tradition of shielding such districts from funding reductions through “guarantees.” This year, 240 districts (about two in five) are covered by one of the three main guarantees, at a cost to the state of $379 million. On a per-pupil basis, the largest beneficiary is East Cleveland, whose enrollment has dropped by a staggering 37 percent over the past five years. Crestwood, Waynesdale, and Grand Valley are other rapidly shrinking districts—their enrollments are down by more than 20 percent—that also receive large sums in funding guarantees. In a step towards a fair system that funds districts based on how many students they currently (not historically) enroll, lawmakers will remove guarantees from the funding system.
3. Lawmakers will put a lid on questionable career-technical “pathways” to high school graduation. After much debate, the legislature overhauled graduation requirements in 2019. Starting with the graduating class of 2023, students must now pass state math and English exams, or—falling short of that—meet one of three other options, which include a career-technical pathway. While providing this option makes sense, it now appears that some districts are pushing students to the finish line through dubious industry-recognized credentials (IRC). In Youngstown, 68 percent of students met the IRC threshold for graduation, and 86 percent graduated high school on time. That would be fine if the IRCs were tied to high-wage careers. But a closer look indicates that a vast majority of IRCs earned in Youngstown were National Incident Management System credentials, CPR First Aid, and a bleeding control certificate—a “bundle” of low-level credentials that meet graduation requirements but are unlikely to have value in most workplaces. That raises the question: Are most Youngstown graduates actually interested in jobs in disaster and emergency management, or were they pushed by schools to complete these programs as a quick and easy route to a diploma? A similarly questionable pattern has emerged in Akron City Schools where large numbers of students appear to be graduating via retail-based certificates. While retail careers can be fulfilling, do most Akron students have their sights set on such occupations? Recognizing the harm of steering students toward less rigorous pathways that may have nothing to do with their career aspirations, lawmakers will take actions this year that raise the bar for meeting the career-tech graduation requirements.
2. Lawmakers will continue the push for quality educational choices through funding improvements. Ohio has a proud history of supporting educational choice, and lawmakers will continue the progress towards a choice-rich, parent-centered system by doing the following:
1. Lawmakers will dismantle antiquated policies that promote mediocrity in schools. Following the calls of school reformers, as well as former presidents of both parties, President-elect Trump promised to get more serious about instructional quality in American classrooms. That’s well and good, but much of the policy machinery that prevents schools from rewarding excellence (and rooting out incompetence) exists at the state level. Ohio’s tenure laws, for instance, protect the jobs of poor-performing teachers by making it nearly impossible for their employers to fire them. Meanwhile, the state’s minimum salary schedule ignores teachers’ actual contributions to student learning, instead requiring schools to pay salaries according to years of service and degrees-earned. This year, Ohio lawmakers will repeal outdated state policies, such as tenure, salary schedules, and others, that get in the way of increased student learning and instructional quality in Ohio classrooms.
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Some may scoff at these predictions, and it’s true: I could very well go 0 for 5. Indeed, some of these actions are a big political lift, as they cut against the interests of powerful education groups. But if the past has taught us anything, the public often gets behind leaders willing to take on established interests, shake up how government is run, and work to serve people more effectively and efficiently. This year, Ohio lawmakers will have their opportunity to be bold and assertive—and work to the benefit of students, families, and citizens. Are they up to the challenge? I’m predicting that they are.
The countdown to midnight is a time-honored tradition for New Year’s Eve. And while education might not be at the top of many minds while ringing in the new year, 2024 had plenty of headlines that deserve attention. Let’s take a look.
Five: Ohio leaders tackle cellphone usage in schools
In early April, Governor DeWine used his state of the state address to call on school leaders to prohibit cellphone use in the classroom, and the General Assembly to pass a bill requiring schools to establish and communicate phone and social media policies. A few weeks later, lawmakers unanimously did so, requiring each school board to adopt a policy governing the use of cellphones. DeWine signed the bill into law in May, and the Department of Education and Workforce (DEW) released a model policy a short time later that forbids student use of cellphones at all times. Districts and schools are required to develop policies by July 1, 2025. To cap off the year, DEW released the results of a survey showing that most schools are well on their way to completion.
Four: Chronic absenteeism remains staggeringly high
Chronic absenteeism skyrocketed during Covid and has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. In 2018–19, the statewide rate was just under 17 percent, meaning one in six students were missing at least 10 percent of instructional time. By 2021–22, that number had jumped to 30 percent. After a small decline to 26 percent during the 2022–23 school year, many hoped that a much bigger drop was in store for 2024. Instead, the September release of 2023–24 school report cards revealed a statewide chronic absenteeism rate of 25 percent—a decline of just 1 percentage point from the year prior. That means a fourth of students across the state missed roughly eighteen days of school at minimum, amounting to nearly a month’s worth of lost learning. In some districts, the numbers were even higher. Every district in the Ohio Eight, for example, clocked in above 38 percent. In at least three of those districts—Cleveland, Columbus, and Youngstown—the chronic absenteeism rate was above 50 percent. This is a slow-motion disaster.
Three: Low math scores are a problem that Ohio needs to solve
As with chronic absenteeism, many were hoping to see a big improvement in math scores on 2024 state report cards. Unfortunately, they ended up disappointed. Among all students statewide, the math proficiency rate increased by only half of a percentage point. That’s better than English language arts, which remained flat. But overall proficiency rates in English have been 7 to 9 percentage points higher than math during the last few years, making it a hollow victory at best. Moreover, math proficiency rates appear to decline as students grow older. In 2024, proficiency rates went from 61 percent in third grade to 57 percent in fifth and 49 percent in seventh. As for high school students, Algebra I results (56 percent proficient) were slightly better than middle school test scores, but not by much. Geometry proficiency, meanwhile, was abysmal (40 percent).
Two: Columbus City Schools once again sets an example for what not to do
Columbus City Schools is the largest district in Ohio. It might also be the most dysfunctional, given its persistently low report card ratings, scandal-plagued history, sky-high chronic absenteeism rate, and longstanding refusal to deal with underenrolled buildings. This year, the district took its shenanigans to a whole new level when officials chose to flout a state law requiring them to provide transportation to students who live within district boundaries but attend non-district options like charter or private schools. In doing so, they robbed more than 1,300 students of access to safe and free school transportation. To make matters worse, district officials made this decision just a few short weeks before the first day of school, leaving hundreds of families—many of whom were low-income—scrambling to find alternatives.
In September, Attorney General Dave Yost sued the district for refusing to fulfill their legal obligation to transport kids. In October, the district began busing roughly 100 students who disputed the district’s claim that they were “impractical” to transport. And in November, one of the charter schools affected by the debacle opted to pursue a class action lawsuit. At the time of this writing, the legal mess has yet to be resolved and the full extent of the disruption to students’ learning remains unclear.
One: The science of reading initiative hits the ground running
Let’s end our countdown on a positive note. In 2023, Ohio policymakers established a statewide initiative focused on the science of reading, an evidence-based instructional approach that focuses on phonics and knowledge-building. As part of the initiative, public schools must use curriculum, instructional materials, and intervention programs aligned with reading science. To assist schools with the transition, lawmakers charged DEW with two important tasks: surveying districts and charters about their reading programs, and establishing a list of high-quality materials from which schools could choose.
Survey results were published in February, as was an initial list of state-approved materials (which has been subsequently updated). According to survey results, several core curricula that appear on the state-approved list were already commonly used in Ohio classrooms. But there were also dozens of districts and schools that reported using ineffective curricula that did not meet Ohio’s new science of reading guidelines. In fact, two-thirds of Ohio districts were not using fully aligned core ELA elementary curricula. Fortunately, lawmakers set aside $64 million in state funds to subsidize the purchase of new materials.
Ohio’s science of reading initiative wasn’t limited to curricula. Thousands of teachers and administrators participated in mandated professional development and received stipends upon completion. Reading coaches provided intensive support to staff in more than 100 schools and districts. The Department of Higher Education prepared to begin audits of Ohio’s teacher preparation programs to ensure their training aligns with the science of reading. And just last month, Governor DeWine announced that the U.S. Department of Education awarded Ohio a $60 million grant that will provide further help with implementation. Ohio still has a long way to go to boost its literacy outcomes. But so far, implementation is off to a promising start.
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And there you have it—a countdown of Ohio’s biggest education stories from 2024. Stay tuned for Fordham’s predictions about what the new year will bring.
Each year, we strive to provide Ohio Gadfly readers analysis and commentary on important developments, legislation, and happenings in K–12 education in the Buckeye State. It’s important to us to pay attention to what you, our readers, find valuable in our work so we can continue to cover the most vital issues.
Here’s a look at the most-read pieces from the past twelve months.
5. Which Ohio districts are most burdened by oppressive union contracts? (Stéphane Lavertu, 2/21/24)
Fordham’s Senior Research Fellow Stéphane Lavertu took a fascinating and much-read look at the language used in contracts negotiated between every bargaining unit of teachers (and non-teaching school employees) and the Ohio school boards that employ them from 2019 through 2023. He found thousands of uses of the terms “shall” and “will,” providing a proxy measure for how oppressive the contracts were for school leaders. These clauses, Lavertu concludes, impose rules and procedures that precisely prescribe how district administrators must make decisions on vital matters such as curriculum, student discipline, school closure, resource allocation, and testing. Such prescriptions bind the hands of superintendents and principals, and undermine their ability to meet the varied and evolving needs of students. Clearly a topic of interest to many readers.
4. Ohio continues to move toward high-quality reading curricula (Jessica Poiner, 2/8/24)
Also of import to many Ohio Gadfly readers: Governor DeWine’s efforts to mandate research-based reading curricula and teaching practices in all public schools in the state. In early February, the Department of Education and Workforce released its initial list of high-quality instructional materials that schools would ultimately be required to select from as part of the new policy. Interest in which products made the cut was high, as evidenced by the strong readership for Senior Education Policy Analyst Jessica Poiner’s first look at the list.
3. Ohio’s national ranking for K–12 education is better than you might think (Aaron Churchill, 2/28/24)
Optimism was the attraction of this piece, in which Ohio Research Director Aaron Churchill responded to a newspaper op-ed that blamed the expansion of school choice and a resulting “chronic underfunding” of traditional districts for a drop in Ohio’s education rankings compared to other states in the last decade. Churchill dismantled the op-ed’s assertions and dubious correlations, and offered a clear-eyed—and surprisingly positive—assessment of Ohio’s place in more reliable national education rankings.
2. Kindergarten literacy data raise questions about diagnostic assessments (Aaron Churchill, 10/7/24)
Fordham’s willingness to dive deeply into data has always resonated with our readers. There’s no better example of this than Aaron Churchill’s recent examination of one of the measures included in districts’ early literacy ratings on school report cards. The analysis suggests that the ways in which different districts assess and report kindergarten students’ literacy skills might be producing data inconsistencies. Specifically, a number of schools appear to be reporting an overly rosy picture of children’s literacy skills. If the results are indeed skewed, children with reading deficiencies could be prevented from accessing the supports they need to become strong readers. We’re keeping an eye on this issue to make sure that these concerns are resolved.
1. Five takeaways from Ohio’s baseline survey of elementary reading curricula (Aaron Churchill, 3/22/24)
Another crucial part of Ohio’s science of reading initiative was a survey of all public schools to determine what reading curricula and materials they were currently using prior to the legislative reforms. These data were released by the Department of Education and Workforce in March, indicating that dozens of districts and schools would need to purchase new curricula. Even more daunting: They had to select, purchase, and implement the new materials by no later than June 2025, which included training hundreds of teachers and support personnel. Aaron’s analysis gave us all a sense of how heavy the lift was going to be.
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A huge thank you to all of our readers this year. We appreciate your attention to these and many other vital issues covered by our Gadfly authors. We’ll see you next year for more in-depth analysis and insightful commentary.
One of the best aspects of working at Fordham is getting to read and review education research for the Gadfly. 2024 proved to be a highlight in that regard, affording the opportunity to look at some really great work. Here are five of the most interesting studies I reviewed this year.
Christoph Ableitinger and Johanna Gruber, “Standardized school-leaving exam in mathematics: manifold effects on teaching, teacher cooperation and satisfaction,” Frontiers of Education.
A seismic shift occurred in student testing when Austria made changes in its longstanding school-leaving exams in mathematics. It took schools nearly ten years to fully make the switch from teacher-created questions—which made every exam given to every class of students every year unique—to a standardized model that was aimed at better understanding what each student knew and allowing for comparisons between students, classes, and schools. This report used survey data to look at teachers’ direct experience of and opinions about the changeover. The bottom line from my review: Most teachers reported numerous positive aspects of the change, including the fact that “teaching to the test” can be a good thing for both students and instructors when the process follows certain guidelines.
Zhihan (Helen) Wang, Jiaxin Pei, and Jun Li, “30 Million Canvas Grading Records Reveal Widespread Sequential Bias and System-Induced Surname Initial Disparity,” Management Science (March 2024).
This report hit the news with some splashy headlines about how certain college students were being shortchanged in grading due to clear evidence of “sequential bias” exhibited by manual graders. Specifically, students whose surnames started with A, B, C, D, or E received a 0.3-point higher grade (out of 100) than did students with surnames later in the alphabet. Likewise, students with surnames W through Z received a 0.3-point lower grade than their earlier-in-the-alphabet peers. Thing is, the same pattern is evident no matter what the order: The later you are in whatever grading sequence is used, the worse off your grade is likely to be, largely because manual grading and electronic submission of data is such a slog. The bottom line from my review: A fascinating study with interesting findings but not a lot of obvious fixes for the problem.
Kevin Werner, Gregory Acs, and Kristin Blagg, “Comparing the Long-Term Impacts of Different Child Well-Being Improvements,” Urban Institute (March 2024).
If we knew the best ways to deploy public resources during childhood, could we effectively boost adult prosperity? A team of researchers from the Urban Institute seem to think so. Using data from the Social Genome Model (SGM), a microsimulation model of the life cycle that tracks the academic, social, and economic experiences of individuals from birth through middle age, they created a model that made minor improvements to several aspects of people’s lives, including health, education, and family supports. They then mathematically played out the differences, focusing on earnings levels at age thirty. It turns out that improving children’s math scores outshined all other factors and increased adult earnings the most—by as much as $1,200 per year for the average adult. The bottom line from my review: Although increasing students’ math achievement is far more easily done in a computer simulation than the real world, there are evidence-based ways to do it, and success could demonstrably improve the lives of future generations. Education matters!
Sarah J. Carrier et al., “Citizen science in elementary classrooms: a tale of two teachers,” Frontiers in Education (October 2024).
Citizen science, which is research in any field conducted using data sourced from the general public, was all the rage during the total solar eclipse in April. Several months later came this timely case study looking at citizen science curriculum implementation in two fifth grade classrooms. Survey and classroom log data showed two very different approaches to implementation. One resulted in students regularly uploading data to augment a national research project, while the other resulted in a lower level of data interaction that stayed within the classroom. The researchers gained valuable insights on how to adapt their curriculum to fit different teacher styles and classroom types. The bottom line from my review: Their insights are likely too specific to have much applicability beyond the walls of those two individual classes, but any detailed look into the black box of classroom teaching is worth paying attention to and learning from.
Sy Doan et al., “Educational Spillover Effects of New English Learners in a New Destination State,” Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis (October 2024).
This report also gave a valuable look into classroom practices. Specifically, how an influx of new English Learner (EL) students in a classroom impacts other students’ test performance, using data from the state of Delaware. Overall, researchers found that a 5 percentage-point increase in new EL student share improved the ELA test scores of existing students in that grade level by 0.04 of a standard deviation, which is statistically significant. The strongest boost accrued to existing current ELs and former ELs, although no negative impacts were seen for any group of students or specific classrooms. The bottom line from my review: The lack of negative impacts is important, but the potential mechanisms by which positive impacts are generated (likely investments and supports for new ELs whose benefits “spillover” to other students) seem even more vital to understand and replicate.
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The vast amount of education research published each year can be overwhelming, and findings can sometimes seem contradictory. That’s why we at the Fordham Institute are committed to helping our readers and the public make sense of it all. Dig in with us!
