The nationwide push to create or expand private school access over the last few years—through vouchers, tax credits, or education savings accounts (ESAs)—has ignited parental curiosity in such choices. But has the supply side of the equation kept pace with that heightened demand (and opportunity)? A new report from EdChoice—formerly the Milton and Rose D. Friedman Foundation—digs into the data.
Hard numbers on private school supply have been lacking until recently. Kudos to EdChoice researcher Susan Pendergrass for her efforts to make sense of what’s out there. Data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Private School Survey (PSS) indicate there were about 30,000 private schools in the U.S. in 2020-21, with approximately 4.4 million students attending. Overall, it seems these numbers represent a decline in total schools between 2010 and 2020 (and, by inference, student enrollment), with some states likely bucking that trend. However, further certainty is not possible as PSS data are merely voluntary survey responses from a representative sample of schools. Tuition rates for 2020-21 are reported in ranges—from less than $3,500 to more than $15,000 per year. Approximately four-fifths of private schools charged less than $15,000 in tuition annually. The overall average was about $13,000.
From there, the data become more reliable, largely as a result of burgeoning publicly-funded private-school choice programs. While not every private school chooses to participate in its state’s voucher or ESA programs, publicly-available lists of those that do are kept and updated with fidelity by state education agencies or the third-party organizations that manage disbursement of funds. Fordham’s home state of Ohio has been an exemplar for many years, but this report mainly features Arizona, whose ESA program became universally-available in the fall of 2022. Detailed information is fully available on the numbers and types of schools participating (with lots of subcategories) as well as the number of students opting for each type, dedicating their ESA funds toward tuition payments. The number of participating schools in Arizona grew from 510 in 2022 to 661 in 2023; the number of students participating grew by nearly 10,000; and the tuition support provided to families grew from $195 million to more than $268 million. Even if every other non-participating private school in the state closed shop in that year (they didn’t), the net was still a big, concrete gain—no ambiguity, statistical sampling, or data modeling required. Ditto for non-school providers—tutors, therapists, curriculum publishers—all reimbursable expenses for Arizona ESA families and all on the rise from 2022 to 2023.
EdChoice’s report does not address the question of whether voucher and ESA support are leading to increases in tuition or other private education resources, although it references other recent research that does raise concerns in that regard. If the influx of public money into private-school programs leads to tuition increases over and above the value of the voucher, the intent of such programs to widen access for families would be undermined and support for private school choice could suffer. It’s a matter of basic economics and needs watching carefully.
The available data indicate that expanded private school support programs have led to an increased supply of private education options, at least in Arizona. Other states examined in this report are less clearcut, with eligibility levels determining how big programs grow and how fast. It is not a surprise, then, that EdChoice concludes from this snapshot that private school choice programs must include the widest-possible eligibility (universal would be best), minimal regulatory friction for provider entry, and a choice of administrative vendors to increase the supply side of the equation. One would expect nothing less of the disciples of Milton Friedman. Private school choice is on the rise, hastened by COVID-era chaos and learning loss. Programs need to ensure the supply side of the equation is favorable if they are to meet the demand for classroom seats and service providers. Solid data is the keystone to making sure that happens.
SOURCE: Susan Pendergrass, “The Supply Side of ESAs: How Universal School Choice Programs Have Affected the Number of Private Schools and Home Education Vendors,” EdChoice (May 2025).
