Eric Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
January 2010
This study builds on previous work by economists Hanushek and Woessmann and shows that improved performance on international math and science tests has a positive impact on a country’s future GDP. The effects within the U.S. would be remarkable. The analysts used data from twelve international tests (including PISA) dating back to 1964 to construct an index of cognitive skill levels for a large sample of countries. Since the U.S. had participated in all of these tests and also has a separate longitudinal assessment system (i.e., NAEP), they were able to calibrate scores on each international test against one another. They employed three scenarios to estimate the long-term effects of educational improvement. (1.) To increase average scores on PISA by twenty-five points (a quarter of a standard deviation) over twenty years would result in an increase in the American GDP of $40 trillion over the lifetime of the generation born in 2010. (2.) To bring each country up to the average level of the highest performing PISA country (Finland, or roughly fifty points) would boost American GDP by $100 trillion over the same time period. And (3) raising the scores of the 19 percent of young Americans children who perform below the PISA minimum competency level to that level would add $72 trillion to our GDP, again over the same timeframe. Those are BIG numbers, even in the Obama era. You can find the study here.