It's Day Five of Fordham's name-the-next-education-secretary-tracking-poll, and Chicago superintendent Arne Duncan has solidified his position as the top contender. That much isn't surprising, but what's new is the rise of Inez Tenenbaum as his primary challenger. In part that's because our insiders increasingly seem to believe that neither Jim Hunt nor Colin Powell would accept the ed sec job if offered. It also reflects the conventional wisdom that President-Elect Obama might need to appoint a woman to this position in order to balance his cabinet's diversity.
But would Tenenbaum be a good pick? It's true that under her leadership as state superintendent, South Carolina was a poster-child for No Child Left Behind-style reform, setting, as it did, some of the clearest and toughest standards in the country. Her state also became a friendly environment for the Teacher Advancement Program. But that's where her enthusiasm for reform stopped; she was known to toe the party (and teacher union) line on charter schools and certainly vouchers. Her selection would be viewed as a victory for the NEA.
Other folks mentioned today: Caroline Kennedy, Hugh Price, Tim Kaine, Ted Mitchell, Ronnie Musgrove, Jim Shelton, Erskine Bowles, Susan Castillo, and Jon Schnur. (Note: a trio of former governors--Roy Barnes, Roy Romer, and Bob Wise--are no longer anywhere to be seen.)
Now let's take a look at the trends over the course of the week:
This picture tells quite a story. The Jim Hunt bubble burst Wednesday night when he pretty much took himself out of contention. His loss was Arne Duncan's gain. The Colin Powell speculation is running out of steam, as is Joel Klein's candidacy. Meanwhile, Tennebaum and Atlanta superintendent Beverly Hall are making inroads.
Most likely we have another couple of weeks to go; expect more ups and downs before an announcement is made.
