This front-page Wall Street Journal article reports on the financial woes of the states, which are in the midst of a budget crunch due to the ailing economy and falling tax revenue. No doubt that means budget cuts ahead for public schools, at least in some states and some districts.
If recent history is any guide, though, this pain will be short-lived. When good times are here again, school spending will see a healthy rise, outpacing inflation by a significant measure. But will recent history be a guide?
As I mentioned in last week's Gadfly editorial , over the long-term at least, it seems unlikely that school spending can continue its fast clip forever. Everyone knows that the Baby Boomers are about to retire en masse, putting a huge strain on public resources. Meanwhile, the percentage of households with school-age children is dropping precipitously, down to about one in four today. That means that advocates for increased school spending will have to convince people with no direct stake in the schools to keep opening their wallets, even while they're getting hit with the social security and health care bills of the Boomers. Oh, and did I mention that more and more of education spending is going to pay for the retirement and health care bills of former teachers, rather than educating today's students? This all sounds like a tough sell to me.
Reformers have generally failed to force the public school system to worry about "efficiency" and "cost-benefit analyses"--but these broader societal trends are going to force the issue. And the sooner we figure out how to "do more with less," the better.
