Have you missed all of the polls and prognostications of the election season? Here's the antidote to your data withdrawal: Fordham's pick-the-next-secretary-of-education daily tracking poll!
Here's how it works: 10 Washington insiders* (including yours truly) make their predictions, on a daily basis, about who will be the next ed sec. Each person can list as many contenders as they like, and split up the odds among them. For example, if an insider thought that Rod Paige and Margaret Spellings each had a 50/50 shot at being the next secretary of education (ha!), she could put 50% on Paige and 50% on Spellings.
So let's take a look at today's results:
Arne Duncan? What are they thinking? Colin Powell would be great, but would he take the job? As for Jim?? Hunt, well, I've already shown my cards. He's smart and savvy and appeals to reformers and folks from the establishment. I expect to see his stock price go up.
One thing's clear: our insiders are betting that 400 Maryland Avenue will return to gubernatorial hands, as four of the top nine contenders are current or former governors, versus two districts superintendents and one state supe. And Hrabowski is an interesting selection; as the president of the University of Maryland-Baltimore County, he's the only bona fide higher education expert on the list. With Obama making college affordability a top priority, such a pick doesn't seem so far-fetched.
Other mentions included (in this order): Andy Rotherham, Caroline Kennedy, Erskine Bowles, Jon Schnur, Tim Kaine, Peter McWalters, Paul Vallas, Bob Wise, Chris Edley, Kati Haycock, Norm Francis, Roy Barnes, Roy Romer, and Michael Bennet.
Note who wasn't mentioned: Linda Darling-Hammond.
We'll be back tomorrow to see if anything's changed.
*Me; Joel Packer, NEA; Michelle McLaughlin, TFA (Formerly AFT); Kevin Carey, Education Sector; Fritz Edelstein, Public/Private Action; Brooks Garber, National Alliance of Public School Choice; Nina Rees, Knowledge Universe; Dave DeSchryver, Brustein and Manasevit; Bethany Little, Alliance for Excellent Education; one anonymous participant.
