I've been mulling the decision by Democrats for Education Reform to suggest Chicago superintendent Arne Duncan as their top pick for education secretary. At first it seemed like the kiss of death for Duncan. After all, I thought, wouldn't President-Elect Obama choose a consensus candidate, one that both the reformers and the union types within the Democratic Party would applaud? And if Duncan was now seen as part of the reform camp, wouldn't that disqualify him? And regardless, wouldn't reformers rather Obama pick a true believer such as Jon Schnur?
But now I see how crafty those DFERs are. They must believe that Duncan is a shoe-in for the job (largely because of his close personal relationship with Obama). So now, if he's the pick, the reformers can claim a victory. Very smart.
So yes, I'm coming around to the view that Duncan is the most likely candidate. (See Alexander, here I am, again, admitting the errors of my ways!) But it's not a sure thing because of the diversity factor. Depending on the other Cabinet choices, Obama might need to select a woman or a minority for the ed sec job. Which means that folks like Janet Napolitano, Beverly Hall, and Hugh Price are still in the running.
