U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education StatisticsSeptember 2004
As one expects from NCES, this report is packed full of data that don't make for real stimulating reading. But it has an important, if familiar, message: college costs are rising faster than income growth and inflation, and increases in student aid are not necessarily keeping up. The 1990s saw total aid to full time undergraduates increase from $6,242 per recipient to $8,451 per recipient, while the percentage receiving aid grew from 60 percent to 74 percent. Yet much of this took the form of loans, such that the net price of tuition (tuition minus grants) climbed while the net price of attendance (tuition minus grants and loans) held fairly steady (rising slightly for public four-year colleges and declining slightly for private four-year colleges). And much of the increase in aid benefited wealthier families; among dependent students, the percentage of the top income quartile receiving aid increased from 29 percent to 58 percent, and the amount they received rose by 50 percent. This is not surprising, given that the 1992 rewrite of the Higher Education Act opened subsidized loan programs to middle-income students. Thus the trend runs slightly counter to the increased subsidy for poor families we'd prefer to see, though low income students also gained a bit: in the bottom quartile, those receiving aid grew from 81 percent to 87 percent and their average aid increased from $6,900 to $8,600. This report provides much data and suggests some correlations but causation remains the challenge. Are loans increasing because college costs are rising, or does the abundant supply of aid fuel the tuition increases? You won't find answers here, but you will find a wealth of charts and data as well as useful information various student aid programs. It's available here.
