Ohio State Tests’ Link to College Attendance and Completion

Foreword

For more than two decades, Ohio has gauged students’ math and reading skills through a state assessment program. These tests serve important purposes. They provide essential transparency about student performance so that citizens and communities can check the progress of their local schools and understand the return on their taxpayer investment. They offer education leaders and analysts hard data about pupil outcomes, allowing them to track academic improvements and evaluate programs. They give parents objective information about their child’s performance against state standards, something that has gained importance as report cards become chock full of A’s and B’s.[1]

But do state exams also predict college attendance and completion? This is a key question, especially for parents, many of whom wish to see their children pursue post-secondary education and attain degrees.[2] If exams are reliably predictive, parents could be encouraged to start planning for college (if results indicate being on track) or seek help if scores are not as strong as expected.

This study finds that Ohio’s state tests do indeed predict four-year college attendance and degree completion. For instance, approximately four in five students scoring “advanced” on the state’s Algebra I and English 2 exams went on to attend four-year colleges, a considerably higher college-going rate than those scoring at lower achievement marks. Similar relationships emerge between eighth grade test results and college outcomes.

We understand that these results won’t surprise most experts in the field. However, by confirming the link between test performance and college outcomes, this report should give parents and policymakers greater confidence that Ohio’s state exams provide solid information about students’ post-secondary prospects. The analysis goes one step further and shows that improving students’ test scores is also related to increased college attendance and completion. This indicates that no single test score is destiny. That’s where parents and educators—acting on the data—can intervene and change students’ academic trajectories.

Overview

Policymakers across the political spectrum have long championed the use of statewide tests to monitor whether Ohio students are on track for future success. The educators and subject experts who developed Ohio’s learning standards, to which state tests align, assert that these standards capture the knowledge and skills students need to succeed in college and careers. Consequently, by administering state tests annually starting in third grade, parents, teachers, and principals can identify struggling students who need help getting on a path to college and career opportunities, and they can identify high-achieving students who might benefit from enrichment and acceleration to realize their postsecondary potential. Annual tests also provide state leaders with information about the effectiveness of Ohio schools and the return on investment for taxpayers.

Extensive evidence indicates that students with higher scores on standardized math and English tests do, on average, have better life outcomes, including higher rates of college attendance and graduation.[3] But we don’t know the extent to which scores on Ohio’s state tests predict such longer-term student outcomes. This report answers that question by examining how scores on Ohio’s eighth-grade tests and high school end-of-course exams in math and English correspond to student attendance and graduation from four-year colleges and universities.[4] It also examines whether test-score growth since third grade (the earliest grade of statewide testing) is associated with these postsecondary outcomes.

The results indicate the following:

1. Higher scores on Ohio state tests predict higher rates of college attendance and graduation. For example, 41 percent of students who score at the Accomplished level on the Algebra I end-of-course exam go on to graduate from a four-year college or university within five years of completing high school, whereas 18 percent of students scoring at the Proficient level reach that milestone. The results are similar for math and English exams administered in eighth grade and high school.

2. Greater growth in test scores as students progress through school predicts higher rates of college attendance and graduation. For example, students whose test-score growth from third grade to high school was at approximately the 70th percentile were 6 to 7 percentage points more likely to graduate from a four-year college within five years of finishing high school than similarly achieving third-graders who had more typical (50th percentile) test-score growth from third grade to high school. Growth at the 70th percentile is roughly equivalent to the achievement gains a student would have if they attended a school from fourth grade through high school that, every year, had a four-star Progress rating instead of a three-star Progress rating on Ohio’s school report cards.

The analysis makes clear that current Ohio state tests are useful for assessing whether students are on track to attend and graduate from four-year colleges and universities. It also demonstrates the benefits of continuing to administer tests annually to monitor progress, as student test-score growth is also predictive of college-going and completion.

Data

The analysis employs student-level data to examine the relationship between scores on state tests and postsecondary attainment. It focuses on Ohio state tests in math and English that students typically take in the spring of eighth grade, as well as end-of-course exams (EOCs)—Algebra I and English Language Arts 2—that students typically take at the end of ninth and tenth grade, respectively. Post-secondary attainment is captured by students’ rates of attendance at four-year colleges and universities (in or out of state) within two years of their projected graduation from high school, as well as their rates of graduation from four-year colleges and universities within five years of high school graduation. The analysis employs a sample of students who had at least one third-grade test score and who were in ninth grade in 2014–15 or 2015–16, as that enables the observation of students five years after their expected high school graduation.[5] Appendix A provides additional information on the data and descriptive statistics for the four student samples used in the analysis below.

Part 1: Performance Levels and Post-Secondary Attainment

This analysis first considers college attendance and graduation rates for students who scored at each of five performance levels that are tied to Ohio learning standards: Limited, Basic, Proficient, Accomplished, and Advanced. Table 1 provides more information on these designations, as well as links to web-based resources that describe in detail the knowledge and skills that the performance levels capture for each Ohio state test (OST).

Table 1. Performance-Level Descriptions according to Ohio Educators and Content Experts

As Table 1 shows, Ohio educators and subject experts have established that students who score at the Proficient level have an “appropriate” command of Ohio’s learning standards. As of fall 2025, approximately 60 percent of the state’s students achieved this performance level or higher. Table 1 also shows that Ohio educators and subject experts deem students to be on track for college readiness if they score at the Accomplished or Advanced level, which includes approximately 37 percent of Ohio students as of fall 2025.

Figure 1 (below) plots rates of college attendance for students scoring at each performance level on the four tests that are the focus of this analysis.[6] It indicates that, across all four tests, students scoring at higher levels are significantly more likely to attend a four-year college within two years of finishing high school than students scoring at lower levels. Consistent with state guidance that the Accomplished level denotes college readiness, a large majority of students scoring at the Accomplished or Advanced level attended college within two years of their on-time high school graduation. College attendance rates are below 50 percent for students scoring lower. The results also indicate that the predictiveness of math and English tests is comparable.[7]

Figure 1. Student Performance on Ohio Tests and College Attendance

Figure 2. Student Performance on Ohio Tests and College Graduation

Similarly, Figure 2 (above) shows that, across all four tests, students are more likely to graduate from a four-year college within five years as their performance levels increase. Rates of graduation are up to 42 percent and 59 percent among students who scored at the Accomplished and Advanced levels, respectively. Note, however, that only students who scored at the Advanced level have a greater than 50 percent chance of graduating from a four-year college or university within five years of finishing high school. This is a reminder that factors affecting college attendance and graduation include not only academic aptitude but also student aspirations, financial cost, advising and coursework opportunities, and the proximity and quality of college options.[8]

Finally, note that, once again, performance on math and English exams is similarly predictive of graduation, and that performance levels remain predictive of college graduation even when the analysis is limited to students who attend college.[9] For example, as the appendix reveals, among students who enrolled in college within two years of their projected high school graduation, a clear majority of those who scored at the Accomplished and Advanced levels ultimately graduated within five years of completing high school. However, among college attendees, between 38 and 49 percent of those who scored at the Proficient level graduated within five years of completing high school.

Part 2: Test-Score Growth and Post-Secondary Attainment

The analysis above indicates that math and English tests administered primarily in eighth grade and high school have considerable (and similar) predictive value, but these results could be primarily attributable to capacities students possessed before entering tested grades. If that were so, then annually testing students as they progressed through school would have far less value, as their performance levels and probability of going to college would change little from year to year. To assess whether tests do in fact capture progress toward college readiness, one must examine whether test-score growth (or decline) over time also predicts entry into and graduation from four-year colleges and universities.

This portion of the analysis assesses the extent to which Ohio students with greater test-score growth since third grade (the earliest year of statewide testing) attend and graduate from four-year colleges at higher rates than the average student who had similar third-grade test scores.[10] Figure 3 (below) indicates that students who demonstrated more growth on Ohio state tests (growth at about the 70th percentile relative to other Ohio students) indeed attended and graduated from college at higher rates than students who had similar third grade test scores but then had average test-score growth (at approximately the 50th percentile) between third-grade and high school.[11] Growth at the 70th percentile is roughly equivalent to the achievement gains a student would have if they attended a school from fourth grade through high school that, every year, had a four-star Progress rating instead of a three-star Progress rating on Ohio’s school report cards.[12]

Figure 3. Test-Score Growth and College Attendance and Graduation Rates

Figure 3 indicates that going from the 50th percentile to the 70th percentile in test-score growth corresponds to an increase in the probability of college attendance of 7 to 9 percentage points and an increase in the probability of college graduation of 6 to 7 percentage points. (Going in the other direction, from the median to the 30th percentile, corresponds to reductions in college-going and graduation of similar magnitudes.) These effect sizes correspond to approximately 8,500 more Ohio students attending a four-year college every year, and approximately 6,500 additional students graduating from those colleges within five years of finishing high school.

Finally, as with the results for performance levels, estimates of test-score growth captured by the four tests are similarly predictive of college attendance and graduation,[13] and growth predicts college graduation even if the analysis is limited to students who attend college.[14] In other words, students who demonstrate more test-score growth through high school are more likely to persist once in college.

Conclusion

The evidence shows that Ohio state tests have considerable value for gauging whether students are on track to attend and graduate from four-year colleges and universities. These results are consistent with rigorous research cited above, which indicates that interventions that boost scores on standardized math and reading tests can yield a host of desirable outcomes, such as higher rates of college attendance and, consequently, greater earnings in adulthood. Considered alongside such studies, the analysis demonstrates the benefits of continuing to administer OSTs annually to monitor progress, as well as the value of communicating performance levels and test-score growth to families and educators, such as through the Progress measure on the Ohio report card.

Acknowledgments

We wish to thank Dr. Stéphane Lavertu for his fine work conducting the analysis and authoring this report. Special thanks also to the Ohio Department of Education and Workforce for providing the data necessary for the analysis.

On the Fordham team, we appreciate the thoughtful feedback from our colleagues Michael J. Petrilli and Chester E. Finn, Jr., as well as assistance from Jeff Murray. We’re grateful to Kathi Kizirnis for copy editing the document and Andy Kittles for laying out the publication.

—Aaron Churchill and Chad L. Aldis
Thomas B. Fordham Institute

Endnotes