Jay P. Greene and Marcus A. Winters, Center for Civic Innovation, Manhattan Institute
November 2002
This slim report by Jay Greene and Marcus Winters of the Manhattan Institute examines public school graduation rates by state and finds that the average rate was just 69% in 2000 - significantly lower than the 86.5% rate reported by the federal government's National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). The discrepancy is attributable to different methodologies as well as different data. The "Greene Method"-previously developed by the lead author in 2001 - excludes GED recipients since their lives more closely mirror those of high school dropouts than graduates and since including them in a "graduation rate" does not accurately reflect high schools' output. As for data, NCES relies on states' notoriously inaccurate self-reported dropout statistics, while the Greene Method bases its calculations on the number of students entering high school compared to the number ultimately graduating. Though graduation rates have improved slightly since Greene's first report (an increase of 1% from 68% in 1998), they remain disturbingly low. Some states fare relatively well (New Jersey, at 87%), but many show dismaying results (e.g. Florida, Georgia, and D.C., all below 60%). Even more troubling is the authors' finding that graduation rates for white (76%) and Asian (79%) students significantly exceed those for African American (55%) and Hispanic (53%) students. Greene and Winters also report some interesting intrastate variation. For example, Nebraska's overall graduation rate was 5th highest but its graduation rate for African-American students placed near the bottom. Conversely, DC ranked near the bottom overall but placed 5th for African-Americans. To read this report, surf to http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/cr_31.htm. Details on Greene's 2001 report can be found at http://www.edexcellence.net/gadfly/issue.cfm?issue=82#1254.
